1860 München 4-1 MSV Duisburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 20 Jan 2024

1860 München
4-1 HT 2-0
MSV Duisburg
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

1860 München vs MSV Duisburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.29
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.47
6+ Goals
11%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 31% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.09
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
16%
4.88
X/2
10%
6.38
X/X
11%
4.58
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
10%
4.5
2/X
10%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-3.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.0pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

1860 München v MSV Duisburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME 1860 München EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.22/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.47
+16% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
14.8 Crosses 15.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1

1860 München vs MSV Duisburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME 1860 München
4W-1D-1L
AWAY MSV Duisburg
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.08.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 0-3 HT 0-1 1860 München 1860 München AL3
11.03.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-2 HT 0-0 1860 München 1860 München AL3
03.09.2022 1860 München 1860 München 4-1 HT 4-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
24.04.2022 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 0-6 HT 0-3 1860 München 1860 München AL3
20.11.2021 1860 München 1860 München 3-2 HT 1-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
06.03.2021 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-0 HT 0-0 1860 München 1860 München AL3

1860 München 4-1 MSV Duisburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME 1860 München
4-1
AWAY MSV Duisburg
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
POST-MATCH 1860 München vs MSV Duisburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

1860 München ran out comfortable winners over MSV Duisburg 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had 1860 München as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, 1860 München had 51% of the ball to MSV Duisburg's 49%, shots finished 14-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, 1860 München had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for 1860 München and 1.00 for MSV Duisburg.

What was the final score of 1860 München vs MSV Duisburg?

1860 München 4-1 MSV Duisburg in the Germany - 3rd Division on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for 1860 München vs MSV Duisburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a 1860 München win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split 1860 München 44%, draw 28%, MSV Duisburg 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (1860 München) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (1860 München) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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