Gubbio 1-0 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 20 Jan 2025

📅20/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.1
2-3 Goals
45%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
5.31
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.9pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.3pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gubbio EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
1.33/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.66
+15% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -34%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
317 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gubbio
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Perugia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2024 Perugia Perugia 1-1 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
17.03.2024 Gubbio Gubbio 0-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
12.11.2023 Perugia Perugia 1-0 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
17.03.2021 Gubbio Gubbio 3-2 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
21.11.2020 Perugia Perugia 0-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
06.08.2017 Perugia Perugia 2-1 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gubbio
1-0
AWAY Perugia
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gubbio vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gubbio edged past Perugia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 37%) promised a tight game; Gubbio found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gubbio had 49% of the ball to Perugia's 51%, shots finished 7-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perugia led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gubbio and 1.17 for Perugia.

What was the final score of Gubbio vs Perugia?

Gubbio 1-0 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gubbio vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Gubbio 32%, draw 30%, Perugia 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Perugia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Perugia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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