ACR Messina 0-2 Crotone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 20 Jan 2025

📅20/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
46%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.97
2-3 Goals
47%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
3.54
6+ Goals
8%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
21%
+9.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
46%
Away Win
55%
-9.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.9pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Crotone EU Bookmakers 59%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.05/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.30/0.90
+11% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -13%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
246 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ACR Messina
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Crotone
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Crotone Crotone 2-0 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
10.08.2024 Crotone Crotone 1-0 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTCK
06.03.2024 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-1 HT 0-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
29.10.2023 Crotone Crotone 3-3 HT 2-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
23.12.2022 Crotone Crotone 1-0 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
04.09.2022 ACR Messina ACR Messina 2-4 HT 1-2 Crotone Crotone İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ACR Messina
0-2
AWAY Crotone
42% Ball Possession 58%
3 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ACR Messina vs Crotone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crotone got the better of ACR Messina 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Crotone as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, ACR Messina had 42% of the ball to Crotone's 58%, shots finished 3-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crotone led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for ACR Messina and 2.00 for Crotone.

What was the final score of ACR Messina vs Crotone?

ACR Messina 0-2 Crotone in the Italy - Serie C on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ACR Messina vs Crotone?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split ACR Messina 30%, draw 24%, Crotone 46%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crotone), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Crotone) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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