Utrecht II 1-1 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 20 Jan 2025

📅20/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.75
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
42%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.99
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.57
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
20.5
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1
13%
8.89
X/2
11%
4.33
X/X
14%
5.91
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.21
2/X
6%
14.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.5 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
23%
+9.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
42%
Away Win
54%
-11.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.4pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 58%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -16%
1.31/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.05
-22% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +8%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.3
13.9 Crosses 20.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
1W-3D-2L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.86 xG 1.43
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
291 Passes 390
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
23.08.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
03.05.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
24.11.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.01.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
14.10.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
20.12.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
1-1
AWAY De Graafschap
0.88 xG 1.83
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
240 Passes 353
67% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht II and De Graafschap couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Utrecht II had 43% of the ball to De Graafschap's 57%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.88 to 1.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Utrecht II and 1.50 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs De Graafschap?

Utrecht II 1-1 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated an De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 33%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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