Charlton Athletic 1-2 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 20 Jan 2026

Charlton Athletic
1-2 HT 0-1
Derby County
📅20/01/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Charlton Athletic vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
24%
2.94
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.38
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.86
6+ Goals
8%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.88
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
13%
5.36
X/2
15%
5.81
X/X
10%
3.8
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
4.4
2/X
6%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.9pp
24%
Draw
30%
-6.0pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+5.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.7pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Charlton Athletic v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlton Athletic EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -23%
1.09/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.27
-9% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
267 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 77%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
21.2 Crosses 19.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Charlton Athletic vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlton Athletic
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Derby County
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.00 xG 1.53
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
277 Passes 265
70% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2025 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 0-1 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL
27.02.2024 Derby County Derby County 1-2 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
03.02.2024 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 0-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1
18.02.2023 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
06.08.2022 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
30.12.2019 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL

Charlton Athletic 1-2 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlton Athletic
1-2
AWAY Derby County
0.93 xG 1.87
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 0
379 Passes 218
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Charlton Athletic vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County edged past Charlton Athletic 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Derby County made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Charlton Athletic had 61% of the ball to Derby County's 39%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.93 to 1.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Charlton Athletic and 1.17 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?

Charlton Athletic 1-2 Derby County in the England - Championship on 20/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlton Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Charlton Athletic 38%, draw 24%, Derby County 38%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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