Derby County 1-2 Charlton Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 27 Feb 2024

Derby County
1-2 HT 1-0
Charlton Athletic
📅27/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Derby County vs Charlton Athletic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.55
6+ Goals
12%
14.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.02
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.1
X/1
16%
3.7
X/2
8%
11.0
X/X
12%
5.1
2/1
14%
24.45
2/2
8%
9.05
2/X
7%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
60%
-6.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Charlton Athletic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlton Athletic EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +2%
1.61/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.56
-2% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +19%
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
419 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 64%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
26.1 Crosses 14.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.6

Derby County vs Charlton Athletic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Charlton Athletic
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.47 xG 0.95
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
288 Passes 300
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.02.2024 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 0-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1
18.02.2023 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
06.08.2022 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
30.12.2019 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İNCL
19.10.2019 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 3-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
16.04.2016 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Derby County 1-2 Charlton Athletic — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-2
AWAY Charlton Athletic
0.66 xG 1.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
263 Passes 178
65% Pass Accuracy 57%
24 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Charlton Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlton Athletic edged past Derby County 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Derby County had 56% of the ball to Charlton Athletic's 44%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 0.66 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Derby County and 0.83 for Charlton Athletic.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Charlton Athletic?

Derby County 1-2 Charlton Athletic in the England - 1st Division on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Charlton Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Derby County 53%, draw 25%, Charlton Athletic 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ BTTS No
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