Burton Albion 0-1 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 27 Feb 2024

📅27/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.54
Over 2.5
40%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.13
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.0
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.7
X/1
13%
4.26
X/2
9%
6.74
X/X
12%
3.83
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
14%
5.68
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-1.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+1.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.7pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -25%
1.48/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.57
-3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
265 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 65%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
22.0 Crosses 19.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Carlisle United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.32 xG 2.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
213 Passes 456
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
6 Box Touches 28
7 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
24.10.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 0-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
15.04.2015 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
21.10.2014 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-4 HT 2-4 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
0-1
AWAY Carlisle United
1.12 xG 0.15
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
202 Passes 196
58% Pass Accuracy 58%
36 Box Touches 9
22 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United squeezed past Burton Albion 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Burton Albion at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Burton Albion had 51% of the ball to Carlisle United's 49%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.12 to 0.15 — on chances, Burton Albion could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Burton Albion and 2.00 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Carlisle United?

Burton Albion 0-1 Carlisle United in the England - 1st Division on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burton Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 42%, draw 28%, Carlisle United 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Burton Albion) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burton Albion) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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