Port Vale 2-2 Fleetwood Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 27 Feb 2024

📅27/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.1
2-3 Goals
34%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.77
6+ Goals
11%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 31% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.49
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1 EV+ ✗
22%
5.22
X/2
9%
5.86
X/X
12%
4.36
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
17%
4.12
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · X/1 at 5.22 — our 22% vs market 14.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+2.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.38/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.25
+2% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
25.4 Crosses 16.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.22 xG 1.37
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
236 Passes 265
67% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 3-0 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
08.08.2023 Port Vale Port Vale 3-2 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İNLK
11.03.2023 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
30.07.2022 Port Vale Port Vale 2-1 HT 2-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
15.09.2020 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İNLK
17.07.2019 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 0-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
2-2
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.20 xG 1.85
30% Ball Possession 70%
7 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 16
128 Passes 414
57% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 56
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Vale and Fleetwood Town shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Port Vale at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Port Vale had 30% of the ball to Fleetwood Town's 70%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 1.20 to 1.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Vale had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Port Vale and 1.50 for Fleetwood Town.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?

Port Vale 2-2 Fleetwood Town in the England - 1st Division on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 42%, draw 26%, Fleetwood Town 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✗ Under 2.5
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