Derby County vs Charlton Athletic Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derby County v Charlton Athletic — Team-Based Signals
Derby County vs Charlton Athletic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Charlton Athletic
İN1
1-0
HT 0-0
Derby County
İN1
2-1
HT 1-0
Charlton Athletic
İNCL
3-0
HT 1-0
Derby County
İNCL
Derby County 1-1 Charlton Athletic — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County and Charlton Athletic shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, Derby County had 60% of the ball to Charlton Athletic's 40%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.45 to 0.65.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Derby County and 1.17 for Charlton Athletic.
What was the final score of Derby County vs Charlton Athletic?
Derby County 1-1 Charlton Athletic in the England - Championship on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derby County vs Charlton Athletic?
Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Derby County 38%, draw 28%, Charlton Athletic 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Derby County), BTTS No went the other way.