Hemel Hempstead Town 1-4 Chelmsford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 20 Feb 2024

Hemel Hempstead Town
1-4 HT 1-2
Chelmsford City
📅20/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Conference – 2023/2024

Hemel Hempstead Town vs Chelmsford City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
35%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 30% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+2.9pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.2pp
35%
Away Win
43%
-8.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hemel Hempstead Town v Chelmsford City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelmsford City EU Bookmakers 48%
+5% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -9%
1.16/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.17
-11% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
285 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7

Hemel Hempstead Town vs Chelmsford City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Chelmsford City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.09.2023 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 1-2 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
22.04.2023 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
22.10.2022 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 2-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
02.04.2022 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 2-2 HT 0-1 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
13.11.2021 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 1-2 HT 0-1 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
04.01.2020 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 2-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON

Hemel Hempstead Town 1-4 Chelmsford City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
1-4
AWAY Chelmsford City
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hemel Hempstead Town vs Chelmsford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelmsford City ran out comfortable winners over Hemel Hempstead Town 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 31% / 35%) promised a tight game; Chelmsford City found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hemel Hempstead Town had 44% of the ball to Chelmsford City's 56%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 1.33 for Chelmsford City.

What was the final score of Hemel Hempstead Town vs Chelmsford City?

Hemel Hempstead Town 1-4 Chelmsford City in the England - Conference on 20/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Chelmsford City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Hemel Hempstead Town 33%, draw 31%, Chelmsford City 35%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelmsford City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelmsford City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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