Welling United 4-1 Worthing — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 20 Feb 2024

Welling United
4-1 HT 1-0
Worthing
📅20/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Conference – 2023/2024

Welling United vs Worthing Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
49%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.83
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
8%
7.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.83 — our 26% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
22%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
23%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.6pp
49%
Away Win
54%
-4.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.5pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Welling United v Worthing — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Welling United EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Worthing EU Bookmakers 58%
-4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.23/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.31
-1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
252 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7

Welling United vs Worthing Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Welling United
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Worthing
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.09.2023 Worthing Worthing 2-0 HT 0-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
07.01.2023 Worthing Worthing 3-2 HT 2-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
13.08.2022 Welling United Welling United 2-4 HT 2-3 Worthing Worthing İCON

Welling United 4-1 Worthing — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Welling United
4-1
AWAY Worthing
27% Ball Possession 73%
14 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Welling United vs Worthing
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Welling United cruised past Worthing 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Worthing at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Welling United had 27% of the ball to Worthing's 73%, shots finished 14-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Worthing led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Welling United and 3.00 for Worthing.

What was the final score of Welling United vs Worthing?

Welling United 4-1 Worthing in the England - Conference on 20/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Welling United vs Worthing?

Before kick-off our model rated an Worthing win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Welling United 24%, draw 26%, Worthing 49%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Worthing) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Worthing) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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