Scarborough Athletic 0-1 Southport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 20 Feb 2024

📅20/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.61
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
23%
3.52
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 23% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-1.4pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.9pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.2pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Scarborough Athletic EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Southport EU Bookmakers 22%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
2.25/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.89
+18% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
422 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Scarborough Athletic
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Southport
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.09.2023 Southport Southport 3-1 HT 2-0 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
25.03.2023 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
03.12.2022 Southport Southport 1-1 HT 0-1 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Scarborough Athletic
0-1
AWAY Southport
61% Ball Possession 39%
25 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Scarborough Athletic vs Southport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southport squeezed past Scarborough Athletic 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Scarborough Athletic at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Scarborough Athletic had 61% of the ball to Southport's 39%, shots finished 25-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Southport led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Scarborough Athletic and 1.67 for Southport.

What was the final score of Scarborough Athletic vs Southport?

Scarborough Athletic 0-1 Southport in the England - Conference on 20/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Scarborough Athletic vs Southport?

Before kick-off our model rated a Scarborough Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Scarborough Athletic 57%, draw 22%, Southport 21%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Scarborough Athletic) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Scarborough Athletic) ✓ BTTS No
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