Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Mito HollyHock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 20 Mar 2024

📅20/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.71
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.31
6+ Goals
9%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.71 — our 35% vs market 30.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+5.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.9pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.25/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.24
-29% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +33%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
487 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 201 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Mito HollyHock
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.07.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-0 HT 1-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
05.03.2023 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 1-1 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
25.06.2022 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 1-1 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
04.05.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-1 HT 1-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
24.10.2021 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 1-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
17.04.2021 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-2 HT 1-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-0
AWAY Mito HollyHock
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Mito HollyHock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama squeezed past Mito HollyHock 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fagiano Okayama as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 58% of the ball to Mito HollyHock's 42%, shots finished 16-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.00 for Mito HollyHock.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Mito HollyHock?

Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Mito HollyHock in the Japan - J2 League on 20/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Mito HollyHock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 50%, draw 26%, Mito HollyHock 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fagiano Okayama), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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