Montedio Yamagata 0-1 Fujieda MYFC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 20 Mar 2024

📅20/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.8
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.06
6+ Goals
12%
9.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 26% vs market 19.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
52%
+3.8pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.4pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.9pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Fujieda MYFC EU Bookmakers 28%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +9%
1.48/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.68
-2% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -22%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
408 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Fujieda MYFC
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.08.2023 Fujieda MYFC Fujieda MYFC 1-2 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
07.05.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 3-2 HT 0-2 Fujieda MYFC Fujieda MYFC JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
0-1
AWAY Fujieda MYFC
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fujieda MYFC edged past Montedio Yamagata 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Montedio Yamagata at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 44% of the ball to Fujieda MYFC's 56%, shots finished 5-22.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 1.50 for Fujieda MYFC.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC?

Montedio Yamagata 0-1 Fujieda MYFC in the Japan - J2 League on 20/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montedio Yamagata win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 55%, draw 21%, Fujieda MYFC 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Montedio Yamagata), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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