Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Grulla Morioka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 20 Mar 2024

📅20/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Grulla Morioka EU Bookmakers 24%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +17%
1.51/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.88
-6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +61%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Grulla Morioka
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
08.10.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-4 HT 0-2 Grulla Morioka Grulla Morioka JAP3
24.06.2023 Grulla Morioka Grulla Morioka 1-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-0
AWAY Grulla Morioka
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Grulla Morioka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga edged past Grulla Morioka 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Matsumoto Yamaga as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 52% of the ball to Grulla Morioka's 48%, shots finished 14-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Grulla Morioka led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 2.50 for Grulla Morioka.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Grulla Morioka?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Grulla Morioka in the Japan - J3 League on 20/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Grulla Morioka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 46%, draw 26%, Grulla Morioka 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ BTTS Yes
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