Giravanz Kitakyushu 1-0 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 20 Mar 2025

Giravanz Kitakyushu
1-0 HT 1-0
Fagiano Okayama
📅20/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Japan - League Cup – 2025

Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
58%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
5%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
37%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Fagiano Okayama win — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+6.9pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.6pp
58%
Away Win
63%
-5.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Giravanz Kitakyushu v Fagiano Okayama — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Giravanz Kitakyushu EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 67%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.00/1.00
-2% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% / -7%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 442 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Fagiano Okayama Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Giravanz Kitakyushu
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.06.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-1 HT 1-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu JPK
28.08.2021 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
25.04.2021 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-0 HT 1-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu JAP2
28.11.2020 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 1-1 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
10.07.2020 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-2 HT 0-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu JAP2
28.06.2015 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 2-3 HT 1-3 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2

Giravanz Kitakyushu 1-0 Fagiano Okayama — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Giravanz Kitakyushu
1-0
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Giravanz Kitakyushu squeezed past Fagiano Okayama 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Fagiano Okayama at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Giravanz Kitakyushu had 37% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 63%, shots finished 7-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Giravanz Kitakyushu and 1.17 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Fagiano Okayama?

Giravanz Kitakyushu 1-0 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - League Cup on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Giravanz Kitakyushu 21%, draw 21%, Fagiano Okayama 58%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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