Rodez 1-1 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 20 Mar 2026

Rodez
1-1 HT 1-1
Bastia
📅20/03/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2025/2026

Rodez vs Bastia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
4.22
6+ Goals
10%
21.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 35% vs market 31.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.47
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
10%
5.11
X/2
12%
6.06
X/X
13%
3.98
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
12%
4.51
2/X
8%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rodez v Bastia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rodez EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -14%
1.35/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.08
+5% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
25.8 Crosses 16.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Rodez vs Bastia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rodez
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bastia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.04 xG 1.08
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
238 Passes 298
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.09.2025 Bastia Bastia 2-3 HT 1-0 Rodez Rodez FR2
07.02.2025 Rodez Rodez 0-2 HT 0-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
29.10.2024 Bastia Bastia 2-2 HT 1-2 Rodez Rodez FR2
17.02.2024 Bastia Bastia 0-2 HT 0-1 Rodez Rodez FR2
21.10.2023 Rodez Rodez 1-1 HT 0-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
25.02.2023 Rodez Rodez 0-2 HT 0-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
POST-MATCH Rodez vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rodez and Bastia shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Rodez and 1.50 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Rodez vs Bastia?

Rodez 1-1 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 20/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rodez vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rodez win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Rodez 40%, draw 27%, Bastia 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rodez), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rodez) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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