Heidenheim 1-2 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.09
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
55%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.61
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.98
2-3 Goals
37%
2.07
4-5 Goals
29%
2.57
6+ Goals
12%
5.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.83
1/2
7%
19.15
1/X
6%
17.0
X/1 EV+ ✗
12%
13.1
X/2
13%
3.9
X/X
7%
7.49
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
35%
1.74
2/X
7%
16.9
Value flag · X/1 at 13.1 — our 12% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
16%
+8.1pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.9pp
55%
Away Win
64%
-9.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 69%
+79% / +79% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.34/2.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.13
+137% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +7%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 481 · 84%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
19.1 Crosses 16.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
1W-3D-2L
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.11 xG 4.07
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
182 Passes 430
58% Pass Accuracy 75%
11 Box Touches 47
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 2-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
02.03.2016 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
18.09.2015 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL2
22.03.2015 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL2
06.10.2014 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-1 HT 1-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
26.03.2014 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-1 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
1-2
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.03 xG 1.84
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
265 Passes 491
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig nicked a narrow win over Heidenheim 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Heidenheim had 39% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 61%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.03 to 1.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Heidenheim and 1.33 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig?

Heidenheim 1-2 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 25%, draw 21%, RB Leipzig 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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