Hoffenheim 4-3 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Apr 2024

Hoffenheim
4-3 HT 1-1
Mönchengladbach
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.43
Over 2.5
59%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.32
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.69
6+ Goals
14%
6.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.97
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
13%
5.33
X/2
10%
6.58
X/X
10%
5.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.3
2/2
19%
3.96
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.8pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Mönchengladbach — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 37%
-9% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.69/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.74
+1% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
378 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.1 Crosses 14.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.58 xG 1.85
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
387 Passes 399
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-1 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
28.01.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-4 HT 0-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
06.08.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 3-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
14.05.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 5-1 HT 3-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
18.12.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
21.04.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-2 HT 0-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1

Hoffenheim 4-3 Mönchengladbach — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
4-3
AWAY Mönchengladbach
2.35 xG 1.03
59% Ball Possession 41%
28 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
544 Passes 341
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
41 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim squeezed past Mönchengladbach 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Hoffenheim found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 59% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 41%, shots finished 28-13, expected goals 2.35 to 1.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hoffenheim's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.83 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach?

Hoffenheim 4-3 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 39%, draw 25%, Mönchengladbach 36%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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