Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Unterhaching — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
24%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.61
No
41%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.16
6+ Goals
15%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.8
1/2
10%
33.0
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
22%
4.84
X/2
8%
7.19
X/X
11%
4.9
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
7%
4.9
2/X
9%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
46%
+3.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
24%
Away Win
28%
-3.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.1pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Unterhaching EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -4%
1.32/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.47
-19% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Unterhaching
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
11.11.2023 Unterhaching Unterhaching 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
19.01.2007 Unterhaching Unterhaching 1-1 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
13.08.2006 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL2
19.02.2006 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-1 HT 0-1 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL2
16.09.2005 Unterhaching Unterhaching 1-1 HT 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
20.02.2005 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-1
AWAY Unterhaching
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Unterhaching
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue squeezed past Unterhaching 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 57% of the ball to Unterhaching's 43%, shots finished 7-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 0.50 for Unterhaching.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Unterhaching?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Unterhaching in the Germany - 3rd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Unterhaching?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 49%, draw 27%, Unterhaching 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
20 Apr 2024
15:00 1860 München vs Saarbrücken Analysis →
15:00 Dynamo Dresden vs Viktoria Köln Analysis →
15:00 Hallescher FC vs Verl Analysis →
15:00 Lübeck vs Borussia Dortmund II Analysis →
17:30 Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg Analysis →