Ingolstadt 2-0 MSV Duisburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 20 Apr 2024

Ingolstadt
2-0 HT 1-0
MSV Duisburg
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✓
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.31 — our 26% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
13%
4.24
X/2
9%
9.35
X/X
10%
5.56
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
13%
6.62
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-2.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.3pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ingolstadt v MSV Duisburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -16%
1.83/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.52
-19% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
18.7 Crosses 18.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9

Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
5W-1D-0L
AWAY MSV Duisburg
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.05 xG 2.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
320 Passes 497
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-2 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
12.05.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-0 HT 1-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
12.11.2022 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
15.05.2021 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-5 HT 1-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
10.01.2021 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-1 HT 2-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
25.01.2020 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3

Ingolstadt 2-0 MSV Duisburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ingolstadt
2-0
AWAY MSV Duisburg
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt saw off MSV Duisburg 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ingolstadt as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Ingolstadt had 55% of the ball to MSV Duisburg's 45%, shots finished 13-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ingolstadt had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Ingolstadt and 0.67 for MSV Duisburg.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg?

Ingolstadt 2-0 MSV Duisburg in the Germany - 3rd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 51%, draw 23%, MSV Duisburg 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ingolstadt), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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