Koninklijke HFC 1-2 Excelsior Maassluis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Tweede Divisie, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.8pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Koninklijke HFC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior Maassluis EU Bookmakers 27%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.47/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.61
-11% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -40%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Koninklijke HFC
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Excelsior Maassluis
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 1
7 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 0
0 Yellow Cards 3
10.02.2024 Excelsior Maassluis Excelsior Maassluis 0-3 HT 0-2 Koninklijke HFC Koninklijke HFC HOLTW
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Koninklijke HFC
1-2
AWAY Excelsior Maassluis
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Koninklijke HFC vs Excelsior Maassluis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior Maassluis squeezed past Koninklijke HFC 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Koninklijke HFC at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Koninklijke HFC had 59% of the ball to Excelsior Maassluis's 41%, shots finished 9-7.

What was the final score of Koninklijke HFC vs Excelsior Maassluis?

Koninklijke HFC 1-2 Excelsior Maassluis in the Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Koninklijke HFC vs Excelsior Maassluis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Koninklijke HFC win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Koninklijke HFC 50%, draw 21%, Excelsior Maassluis 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Koninklijke HFC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Koninklijke HFC) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOLTW More Netherlands - Tweede Divisie
20 Apr 2024
15:30 GVVV vs Noordwijk Analysis →
15:30 Scheveningen vs HHC Hardenberg Analysis →
16:00 Rijnsburgse Boys vs ACV Analysis →
16:00 AFC Amsterdamsche vs Katwijk Analysis →
16:00 Quick Boys vs Kozakken Boys Analysis →
16:30 Jong Sparta vs SV Spakenburg Analysis →