Puskas FC 5-0 Paksi SE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 26% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+5.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puskas FC EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.74/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.61
-11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
25.4 Crosses 21.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puskas FC
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Paksi SE
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.60 xG 1.81
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
312 Passes 208
71% Pass Accuracy 63%
26 Box Touches 19
36 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2024 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-1 HT 1-0 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
23.09.2023 Puskas FC Puskas FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
19.05.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 0-2 HT 0-0 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
25.02.2023 Puskas FC Puskas FC 1-4 HT 1-2 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
09.10.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 1-3 HT 1-1 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
11.03.2022 Puskas FC Puskas FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puskas FC
5-0
AWAY Paksi SE
1.89 xG 0.23
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 3
294 Passes 235
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
29 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Puskas FC vs Paksi SE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puskas FC ran out comfortable winners over Paksi SE 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Puskas FC made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Puskas FC had 53% of the ball to Paksi SE's 47%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 1.89 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Puskas FC and 1.50 for Paksi SE.

What was the final score of Puskas FC vs Paksi SE?

Puskas FC 5-0 Paksi SE in the Hungary - NB I on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puskas FC vs Paksi SE?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puskas FC win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Puskas FC 39%, draw 26%, Paksi SE 35%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puskas FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Puskas FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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20 Apr 2024
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