Academica 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.7
No
56%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.8pp
56%
BTTS No
45%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academica EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 36%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.34/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.62
-73% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Academica
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-1 HT 1-1 Academica Academica POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Academica
1-0
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Academica vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Academica nicked a narrow win over Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Academica found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Academica had 51% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 49%, shots finished 16-8.

What was the final score of Academica vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Academica 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academica vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Academica win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Academica 38%, draw 28%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Academica), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Academica) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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