Leicester City vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Leicester City v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals
Leicester City vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-1
Leicester City
İNLK
4-0
HT 3-0
Leicester City
HAZ
0-3
HT 0-2
Liverpool
İNP
2-1
HT 2-1
Leicester City
İNP
2-0
HT 1-0
Leicester City
İNP
Leicester City 0-1 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics
Liverpool squeezed past Leicester City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.
On the day, Leicester City had 42% of the ball to Liverpool's 58%, shots finished 5-28, expected goals 0.27 to 2.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Liverpool's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Leicester City and 2.83 for Liverpool.
What was the final score of Leicester City vs Liverpool?
Leicester City 0-1 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Leicester City vs Liverpool?
Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Leicester City 18%, draw 20%, Liverpool 63%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.