Liverpool 3-1 Leicester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
67%
1.11
Draw
18%
8.11
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
1.0
Over
63%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
17%
12.45
2-3
38%
2.81
4-5
28%
2.24
6+
17%
2.76
Value flag · 0-1 at 12.45 — our 17% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.15
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
34.5
X/1
20%
3.9
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
8%
19.15
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
5%
34.5
2/X
5%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Liverpool win — 67%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
85%
-17.7pp
18%
Draw
9%
+9.3pp
14%
Away Win
6%
+8.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Leicester City EU Bookmakers 9%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
2.47/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.47
+0% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -20%
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
534 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
42.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
23.7 Crosses 11.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Leicester City
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.28 xG 0.69
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
528 Passes 291
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
47 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.09.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 3-1 HT 0-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNLK
30.07.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 4-0 HT 3-0 Leicester City Leicester City HAZ
15.05.2023 Leicester City Leicester City 0-3 HT 0-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
30.12.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 2-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
10.02.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 HT 1-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
28.12.2021 Leicester City Leicester City 1-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
3-1
AWAY Leicester City
2.03 xG 0.34
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 1
590 Passes 237
91% Pass Accuracy 77%
60 Box Touches 4
50 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Leicester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool saw off Leicester City 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Liverpool had 69% of the ball to Leicester City's 31%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 2.03 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Liverpool and 0.50 for Leicester City.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Leicester City?

Liverpool 3-1 Leicester City in the England - Premier League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Leicester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 67%, draw 18%, Leicester City 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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