Shamakhi 2-1 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.56
Over 2.5
35%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.7pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.8pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.1pp
65%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.6pp
35%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.8pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.68/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.26
-46% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
285 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shamakhi
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
17.02.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 1-1 HT 0-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
30.11.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
20.09.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-2 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
21.04.2023 Shamakhi Shamakhi 1-1 HT 1-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
17.02.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 3-2 HT 1-1 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
28.11.2022 Shamakhi Shamakhi 1-1 HT 0-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
POST-MATCH Shamakhi vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shamakhi edged past Kapaz 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 33% / 29% — and on the day Shamakhi made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kapaz led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Shamakhi and 1.17 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Shamakhi vs Kapaz?

Shamakhi 2-1 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shamakhi vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shamakhi win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Shamakhi 38%, draw 33%, Kapaz 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shamakhi) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shamakhi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
20 Apr 2025
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