Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.41
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.75
6+ Goals
9%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.02
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1
16%
5.41
X/2
11%
5.5
X/X
11%
3.97
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
14%
4.12
2/X
7%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+3.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 38%
+41% / +41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / -4%
1.08/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.18
+7% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
21.6 Crosses 18.3
0.6 Yellow Cards 1.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-2
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.20 xG 1.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
192 Passes 306
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers edged past Fagiano Okayama 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fagiano Okayama at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 42% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 58%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.20 to 1.50.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Kashima Antlers?

Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 41%, draw 27%, Kashima Antlers 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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