Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
42%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.87
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.92
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
4%
15.95
X/1
11%
7.96
X/2
15%
4.31
X/X
15%
3.96
2/1
10%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.71
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
42%
Away Win
48%
-6.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.8pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 52%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -25%
1.06/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.97
+27% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 78%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
17.6 Crosses 25.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.76 xG 1.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
275 Passes 372
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.09.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
04.09.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
17.08.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
06.05.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-3 HT 1-2 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
30.09.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2-1
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.23 xG 0.80
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 8
165 Passes 449
63% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 36
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus squeezed past Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 32% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 68%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.23 to 0.80 — on chances, Sanfrecce Hiroshima could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.67 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 32%, draw 26%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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