Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.19
6+ Goals
9%
20.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 24%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +15%
2.05/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.33
+2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.35 xG 1.12
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
381 Passes 251
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.09.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
17.08.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
06.05.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-3 HT 1-2 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
30.09.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
20.05.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-2
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus squeezed past Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 60% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 40%, shots finished 17-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.50 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - League Cup on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 47%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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