Machida Zelvia 2-0 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.17
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.7
6+ Goals
11%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
-0.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 33%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.00/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.16
+31% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +23%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
236 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 468 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.32 xG 0.68
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
248 Passes 396
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.09.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 5-0 HT 2-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JLK
25.08.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
01.06.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-3 HT 1-2 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
02.08.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 0-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JPK
23.10.2022 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-1 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
15.05.2022 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
2-0
AWAY Albirex Niigata
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia got the better of Albirex Niigata 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 55% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 45%, shots finished 18-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Machida Zelvia and 2.00 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata?

Machida Zelvia 2-0 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - League Cup on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 44%, draw 27%, Albirex Niigata 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Under 2.5
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