Shimizu S-Pulse 3-1 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.54
Over 2.5
37%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.29
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.1
6+ Goals
7%
31.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.29 — our 39% vs market 36.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.01
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
19%
5.39
X/2
11%
5.65
X/X
14%
3.73
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
14%
4.32
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.7pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.1pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.4pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +21%
1.38/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.88
+12% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +47%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.8 Crosses 20.1
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.03 xG 1.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
279 Passes 302
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 3-2 HT 2-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
18.06.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-1 HT 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
02.10.2021 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
06.03.2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 2-2 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
14.08.2019 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JPK
03.11.2011 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-2 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
3-1
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
0.59 xG 1.74
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
183 Passes 325
68% Pass Accuracy 77%
10 Box Touches 25
6 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse beat Avispa Fukuoka 3-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 31% — and on the day Shimizu S-Pulse made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 38% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 62%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.59 to 1.74 — the balance of chances actually favoured Avispa Fukuoka.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shimizu S-Pulse had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.50 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Shimizu S-Pulse 3-1 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 40%, draw 28%, Avispa Fukuoka 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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