Forge 1-1 Valour — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 20 Apr 2025

Forge
1-1 HT 0-1
Valour
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.02
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
3.57
6+ Goals
11%
14.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 28% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+7.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.9pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forge EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Valour EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.51/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.38
+26% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
383 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
15.3 Crosses 15.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forge
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Valour
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.76 xG 1.20
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
418 Passes 290
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Valour Valour 0-1 HT 0-1 Forge Forge KAPL
04.08.2024 Valour Valour 2-1 HT 1-0 Forge Forge KAPL
23.06.2024 Forge Forge 2-1 HT 2-0 Valour Valour CAPL
27.04.2024 Forge Forge 2-1 HT 0-0 Valour Valour CAPL
17.09.2023 Valour Valour 2-3 HT 1-1 Forge Forge CAPL
16.07.2023 Forge Forge 1-1 HT 0-0 Valour Valour KAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forge
1-1
AWAY Valour
2.44 xG 1.79
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
356 Passes 241
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Forge vs Valour
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forge and Valour couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Forge at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Forge had 57% of the ball to Valour's 43%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.44 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forge had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Forge and 1.17 for Valour.

What was the final score of Forge vs Valour?

Forge 1-1 Valour in the Kanada - Premier League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forge vs Valour?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Forge 49%, draw 24%, Valour 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Forge), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Forge) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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