Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Fafe Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lusitania FC Lourosa v Fafe — Team-Based Signals
Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Fafe Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
2-3
HT 0-1
Fafe
POR3
0-3
HT 0-1
Lusitania FC Lourosa
POR3
Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-1 Fafe — Actual Match Statistics
Lusitania FC Lourosa squeezed past Fafe 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 40% of the ball to Fafe's 60%, shots finished 9-12.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lusitania FC Lourosa had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.60 goals for Lusitania FC Lourosa and 1.00 for Fafe.
What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Fafe?
Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-1 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Fafe?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 41%, draw 26%, Fafe 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.