Fafe 1-2 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.74
Over 2.5
39%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.8pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 31%
+9% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.24/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.50
-3% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fafe
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 4-0 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
17.12.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-3 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
03.09.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-3 HT 0-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
1-2
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa edged past Fafe 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fafe at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fafe had 51% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 49%, shots finished 11-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lusitania FC Lourosa led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fafe and 3.00 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Fafe 1-2 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fafe 46%, draw 26%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fafe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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