Lusitania FC Lourosa 4-0 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+3.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.3pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 34%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.88/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.10
+54% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / +16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Fafe
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
57% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-3 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
03.09.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-3 HT 0-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
4-0
AWAY Fafe
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa cruised past Fafe 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 65% of the ball to Fafe's 35%, shots finished 17-12.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lusitania FC Lourosa and 1.50 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Fafe?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 4-0 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 46%, draw 23%, Fafe 31%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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