Lusitania 2-1 CF Os Belenenses — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.74
Over 2.5
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+0.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 49%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.47/2.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/0.52
+10% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +126%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania
0W-0D-1L
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 9
4 Yellow Cards 6
26.08.2024 CF Os Belenenses 1-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania Lusitania POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania
2-1
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 9
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Lusitania vs CF Os Belenenses
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania squeezed past CF Os Belenenses 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was CF Os Belenenses at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Lusitania had 47% of the ball to CF Os Belenenses's 53%, shots finished 7-13.

What was the final score of Lusitania vs CF Os Belenenses?

Lusitania 2-1 CF Os Belenenses in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania vs CF Os Belenenses?

Before kick-off our model rated an CF Os Belenenses win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lusitania 30%, draw 26%, CF Os Belenenses 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (CF Os Belenenses) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CF Os Belenenses) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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