Fafe 1-2 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.3pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.0pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.59/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.35
+29% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fafe
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.75
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Fafe Fafe 1-2 HT 1-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
25.08.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 4-0 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
17.12.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-3 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
03.09.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-3 HT 0-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
1-2
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa squeezed past Fafe 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and on the day Lusitania FC Lourosa made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fafe had 53% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 47%, shots finished 20-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Lusitania FC Lourosa led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fafe and 2.75 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Fafe 1-2 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fafe 40%, draw 24%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fafe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
22 Feb 2025
18:00 Vilaverdense vs Sporting Braga II Analysis →
18:00 Trofense vs Sanjoanense Analysis →
19:00 Sporting CP II vs CF Os Belenenses Analysis →
20:00 Anadia vs Sao Joao Ver Analysis →
20:00 Academica vs Caldas Analysis →
21:00 Varzim vs Atletico CP Analysis →