Montevideo Wanderers 1-2 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.04
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
52%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
21%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
52%
Away Win
53%
-1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 57%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
0.80/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.70
-7% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +19%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.0 Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montevideo Wanderers
1W-3D-2L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.11.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-2 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.06.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
12.05.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
06.12.2023 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
25.06.2023 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
13.05.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 1-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montevideo Wanderers
1-2
AWAY CA Penarol
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montevideo Wanderers vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol edged past Montevideo Wanderers 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montevideo Wanderers had 38% of the ball to CA Penarol's 62%, shots finished 7-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Montevideo Wanderers and 0.67 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Montevideo Wanderers vs CA Penarol?

Montevideo Wanderers 1-2 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montevideo Wanderers vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Montevideo Wanderers 20%, draw 28%, CA Penarol 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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