Baden 2-2 Neuchatel Xamax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 20 May 2024

📅20/05/2024 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
4.04
Draw
29%
4.08
Away
39%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.46
No
50%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
21%
+10.7pp
29%
Draw
21%
+8.0pp
39%
Away Win
57%
-18.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
64%
-14.1pp
50%
BTTS No
36%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baden EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax EU Bookmakers 62%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
0.97/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/0.31
-1% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
13.8 Crosses 22.0
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baden
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.48 xG 2.14
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
323 Passes 489
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
26.01.2024 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 1-1 HT 1-0 Baden Baden İSV2
10.11.2023 Baden Baden 0-4 HT 0-3 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
26.09.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 1-2 HT 1-2 Baden Baden İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baden
2-2
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
1.64 xG 1.84
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 20
9 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 3
438 Passes 480
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
22 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Baden vs Neuchatel Xamax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baden and Neuchatel Xamax couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Baden had 48% of the ball to Neuchatel Xamax's 52%, shots finished 19-20, expected goals 1.64 to 1.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Baden and 2.00 for Neuchatel Xamax.

What was the final score of Baden vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Baden 2-2 Neuchatel Xamax in the Switzerland Challenge League on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baden vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neuchatel Xamax win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Baden 32%, draw 29%, Neuchatel Xamax 39%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Neuchatel Xamax) ✗ Under 2.5
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