Stade Nyonnais 4-3 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 20 May 2024

📅20/05/2024 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.74
Over 2.5
51%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.38
No
47%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.46
2-3 Goals
40%
2.12
4-5 Goals
26%
2.51
6+ Goals
11%
5.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-6.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.4pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
33%
+15.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
67%
-15.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
68%
-15.1pp
47%
BTTS No
32%
+15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stade Nyonnais EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 36%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.81/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.83
-15% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -28%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
22.1 Crosses 14.0
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stade Nyonnais
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Aarau
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.67 xG 1.53
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 4
255 Passes 273
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 25
29 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Aarau Aarau 5-2 HT 3-0 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais İSV2
12.11.2023 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 4-0 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
01.09.2023 Aarau Aarau 0-2 HT 0-0 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stade Nyonnais
4-3
AWAY Aarau
1.87 xG 1.27
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 5
271 Passes 358
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 31
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stade Nyonnais squeezed past Aarau 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Stade Nyonnais made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Stade Nyonnais had 44% of the ball to Aarau's 56%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 1.87 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Stade Nyonnais had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Stade Nyonnais and 1.67 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau?

Stade Nyonnais 4-3 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stade Nyonnais win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stade Nyonnais 38%, draw 27%, Aarau 35%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stade Nyonnais), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stade Nyonnais) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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