St. Pölten 2-2 Bregenz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 20 May 2024

📅20/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.11
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
27%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
9.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.24
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.4
X/1
14%
4.15
X/2
10%
8.88
X/X
15%
5.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
21.45
2/2
12%
6.4
2/X
5%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 13% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pölten EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bregenz EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.54/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.47
+4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +34%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
269 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 69%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
13.0 Crosses 12.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pölten
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Bregenz
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2023 Bregenz Bregenz 2-3 HT 1-1 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pölten
2-2
AWAY Bregenz
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH St. Pölten vs Bregenz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pölten and Bregenz couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was St. Pölten at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, St. Pölten had 60% of the ball to Bregenz's 40%, shots finished 7-8.

What was the final score of St. Pölten vs Bregenz?

St. Pölten 2-2 Bregenz in the Austria - 1st Division on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pölten vs Bregenz?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pölten win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split St. Pölten 48%, draw 26%, Bregenz 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Pölten) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Pölten) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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