Erbaaspor 1-0 Belediye Kütahyaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 3rd Division Yükselme Playoff, 20 May 2024

📅20/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.39
6+ Goals
7%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erbaaspor EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Belediye Kütahyaspor EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +56% / +56%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +82% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erbaaspor
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Belediye Kütahyaspor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.05.2024 Belediye Kütahyaspor Belediye Kütahyaspor 2-1 HT 2-0 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor S3P
27.04.2024 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Belediye Kütahyaspor Belediye Kütahyaspor S3-3
20.12.2023 Belediye Kütahyaspor Belediye Kütahyaspor 1-1 HT 1-1 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor S3-3
07.05.2022 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor 1-4 HT 0-2 Belediye Kütahyaspor Belediye Kütahyaspor S3-1
19.12.2021 Belediye Kütahyaspor Belediye Kütahyaspor 3-1 HT 1-1 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor S3-1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erbaaspor
1-0
AWAY Belediye Kütahyaspor
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 0
5 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Erbaaspor vs Belediye Kütahyaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erbaaspor nicked a narrow win over Belediye Kütahyaspor 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Erbaaspor as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Erbaaspor had 61% of the ball to Belediye Kütahyaspor's 39%, shots finished 15-4.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Belediye Kütahyaspor led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erbaaspor and 2.00 for Belediye Kütahyaspor.

What was the final score of Erbaaspor vs Belediye Kütahyaspor?

Erbaaspor 1-0 Belediye Kütahyaspor in the Turkey - 3rd Division Yükselme Playoff on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erbaaspor vs Belediye Kütahyaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erbaaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Erbaaspor 46%, draw 28%, Belediye Kütahyaspor 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erbaaspor), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Erbaaspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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