Stabaek 4-3 Mjondalen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - NM Cup, 20 May 2025

📅20/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.32
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
28%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.51
Over 2.5
62%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.42
2-3 Goals
39%
2.05
4-5 Goals
29%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
6.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.53
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
6%
20.0
X/1
20%
3.94
X/2 EV+ ✗
10%
17.9
X/X
9%
8.25
2/1
9%
20.5
2/2
9%
14.55
2/X
7%
22.9
Value flag · X/2 at 17.9 — our 10% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
71%
-19.9pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.0pp
28%
Away Win
12%
+15.9pp
38%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stabaek EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Mjondalen EU Bookmakers 15%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
4.98/0.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/3.55
+87% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -24%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
453 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stabaek
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Mjondalen
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.64 xG 1.32
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
222 Passes 275
67% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2025 Stabaek Stabaek 4-0 HT 0-0 Mjondalen Mjondalen NOR1
02.11.2024 Mjondalen Mjondalen 3-0 HT 1-0 Stabaek Stabaek NOR1
12.06.2024 Stabaek Stabaek 4-2 HT 2-1 Mjondalen Mjondalen NOR1
29.10.2022 Stabaek Stabaek 2-0 HT 0-0 Mjondalen Mjondalen NOR1
03.07.2022 Mjondalen Mjondalen 2-4 HT 1-2 Stabaek Stabaek NOR1
21.08.2021 Stabaek Stabaek 1-1 HT 1-0 Mjondalen Mjondalen NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stabaek
4-3
AWAY Mjondalen
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stabaek vs Mjondalen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stabaek edged past Mjondalen 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Stabaek as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Stabaek had 57% of the ball to Mjondalen's 43%, shots finished 21-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stabaek had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Stabaek and 1.33 for Mjondalen.

What was the final score of Stabaek vs Mjondalen?

Stabaek 4-3 Mjondalen in the Norway - NM Cup on 20/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stabaek vs Mjondalen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stabaek win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Stabaek 51%, draw 21%, Mjondalen 28%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stabaek), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stabaek) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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