Orlando City 4-1 Atlanta United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 20 May 2026

📅20/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.5
No
38%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
2.71
6+ Goals
13%
7.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.74
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
10%
5.06
X/2
10%
7.15
X/X
10%
5.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.4
2/2
18%
4.66
2/X
7%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.3pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.7pp
62%
BTTS Yes
62%
-0.5pp
38%
BTTS No
38%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.20/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.34
+10% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
14.6 Crosses 27.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atlanta United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 1.06
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
434 Passes 385
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2026 Orlando City Orlando City 1-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
29.05.2025 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-2 HT 1-2 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
27.04.2025 Orlando City Orlando City 3-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
24.11.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 1-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
20.10.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 1-2 HT 1-2 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
18.03.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-0 HT 1-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
4-1
AWAY Atlanta United
1.88 xG 1.12
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 16
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
266 Passes 427
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs Atlanta United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City ran out comfortable winners over Atlanta United 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Orlando City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Orlando City had 40% of the ball to Atlanta United's 60%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.88 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlanta United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Orlando City and 1.33 for Atlanta United.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs Atlanta United?

Orlando City 4-1 Atlanta United in the USA - Open Cup on 20/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs Atlanta United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 43%, draw 23%, Atlanta United 35%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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