Moreland City 2-3 Heidelberg United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.71
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
54%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.33
Over 2.5
62%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
35%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+5.8pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.9pp
54%
Away Win
62%
-8.7pp
38%
Under 2.5
39%
-1.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
61%
+1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreland City EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidelberg United EU Bookmakers 67%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.65/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.94
+33% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +7%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
290 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 17.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreland City
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Heidelberg United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 0
19.04.2024 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 3-2 HT 0-1 Moreland City Moreland City AVNPL
29.07.2023 Moreland City Moreland City 2-1 HT 1-0 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
28.04.2023 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 0-0 HT 0-0 Moreland City Moreland City AVNPL
POST-MATCH Moreland City vs Heidelberg United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidelberg United edged past Moreland City 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Heidelberg United as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Moreland City and 1.33 for Heidelberg United.

What was the final score of Moreland City vs Heidelberg United?

Moreland City 2-3 Heidelberg United in the Australia - National Premier League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreland City vs Heidelberg United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Heidelberg United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Moreland City 24%, draw 23%, Heidelberg United 54%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidelberg United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heidelberg United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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