Club Brugge 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Super Cup, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.08
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
27%
3.07
6+ Goals
12%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.19
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
11%
12.15
X/1
11%
5.34
X/2
7%
6.41
X/X
9%
4.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.85
2/2
15%
4.12
2/X
8%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+2.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.0pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club Brugge EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 36%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-10% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
406 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 81%
12.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club Brugge
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.38 xG 1.40
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
372 Passes 263
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.05.2024 Club Brugge Club Brugge 2-2 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
21.04.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-2 HT 0-0 Club Brugge Club Brugge BEL
28.02.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 0-0 Club Brugge Club Brugge BEK
07.02.2024 Club Brugge Club Brugge 2-1 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEK
26.12.2023 Club Brugge Club Brugge 1-1 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
05.11.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-0 Club Brugge Club Brugge BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club Brugge
1-2
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.78 xG 2.19
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
485 Passes 206
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Club Brugge vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise squeezed past Club Brugge 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Club Brugge at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Club Brugge had 67% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 33%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 0.78 to 2.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Saint-Gilloise's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Club Brugge and 1.50 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Club Brugge vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Club Brugge 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Super Cup on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club Brugge vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated a Club Brugge win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Club Brugge 44%, draw 27%, Union Saint-Gilloise 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Club Brugge) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Club Brugge) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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