SonderjyskE 1-1 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.06
2-3 Goals
33%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
4.0
6+ Goals
14%
17.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.08
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
6%
14.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
16%
7.79
X/2
13%
4.63
X/X
14%
4.47
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.72
2/X
5%
13.4
Value flag · X/1 at 7.79 — our 16% vs market 9.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+7.4pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-4.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SonderjyskE EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 51%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -15%
1.26/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/0.90
+32% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 82%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
12.6 Crosses 26.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SonderjyskE
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.20 xG 1.68
46% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
286 Passes 379
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 1-4 HT 1-3 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
02.08.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 4-0 HT 2-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
08.05.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-1 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
18.04.2022 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 2-1 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
18.02.2022 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 2-3 HT 2-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
27.10.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-2 HT 0-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SonderjyskE
1-1
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.16 xG 0.97
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
277 Passes 379
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH SonderjyskE vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SonderjyskE and AGF Aarhus shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was AGF Aarhus at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, SonderjyskE had 44% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 56%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.16 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for SonderjyskE and 2.17 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of SonderjyskE vs AGF Aarhus?

SonderjyskE 1-1 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SonderjyskE vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated an AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split SonderjyskE 33%, draw 25%, AGF Aarhus 42%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus)
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