Atletico Nacional 3-1 La Equidad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.28
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
18%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.4
No
56%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
74%
-15.6pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.3pp
18%
Away Win
9%
+9.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
38%
+6.1pp
56%
BTTS No
62%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY La Equidad EU Bookmakers 11%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.68/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.28
+25% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -7%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
436 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 74%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
18.5 Crosses 12.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
2W-2D-2L
AWAY La Equidad
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.26 xG 0.52
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
322 Passes 227
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2025 La Equidad La Equidad 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
31.07.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
26.02.2024 La Equidad La Equidad 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
14.09.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 5-0 HT 2-0 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
02.04.2023 La Equidad La Equidad 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
31.10.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
3-1
AWAY La Equidad
0.90 xG 0.17
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
526 Passes 276
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 6
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs La Equidad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional got the better of La Equidad 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 63% of the ball to La Equidad's 37%, shots finished 10-3, expected goals 0.90 to 0.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.67 for La Equidad.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs La Equidad?

Atletico Nacional 3-1 La Equidad in the Colombia - Primera on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs La Equidad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 58%, draw 24%, La Equidad 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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