Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.71
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.8
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
14%
5.0
X/2
10%
7.42
X/X
9%
5.13
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.3
2/2
13%
5.16
2/X
9%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.55/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.59
+11% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
317 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
18.9 Crosses 21.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.71 xG 1.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
373 Passes 298
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2025 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-2 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
01.09.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-3 HT 0-2 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
04.02.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
18.11.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-1 HT 0-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
18.04.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-3 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
23.10.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-1 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
2-1
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.31 xG 1.90
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
371 Passes 329
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
35 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze edged past Lechia Gdansk 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gornik Zabrze as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 52% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 48%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 2.31 to 1.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lechia Gdansk led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.83 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?

Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 44%, draw 25%, Lechia Gdansk 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gornik Zabrze), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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